Slosh multiplier for Milton Waves.

Posted on by John Munno

Hurricane Milton is indeed a powerful storm, and its impact on Tampa Bay could be significant. The predicted wave heights of 15 feet are concerning, especially when considering the slosh factor, which can amplify wave heights as they move into more confined areas like bays.

Likely Maximum Wave Heights could reach 30’

Halfway into the Bay:

  • Wave Heights: The slosh factor can increase wave heights by 1.5 to 2 times the initial height. Therefore, halfway into Tampa Bay, wave heights could reach approximately 22.5 to 30 feet.
  • Effects: This area would experience severe flooding, with water levels rising significantly above ground level. Infrastructure, homes, and businesses could be heavily damaged, and there would be a high risk of life-threatening conditions.

At the Reaches of the Bay:

  • Wave Heights: As the waves move further into the bay, the slosh factor continues to play a role, but the wave energy might dissipate slightly due to friction and spreading out. However, wave heights could still be around 18 to 25 feet.
  • Effects: The reaches of the bay would still face substantial flooding, though slightly less intense than halfway in. Low-lying areas would be particularly vulnerable, with potential for widespread inundation, road closures, and significant property damage.

Overall Impact

  • Storm Surge: The storm surge, combined with high waves, will lead to extensive coastal flooding. Areas close to the shore will see the deepest water levels.
  • Infrastructure Damage: Buildings, roads, and utilities in the affected areas will likely suffer severe damage.
  • Evacuations: Residents in low-lying and coastal areas should heed evacuation orders to ensure their safety.

It’s crucial for residents to stay informed through local news and heed any evacuation orders or safety advisories¹²³. Stay safe!

Source: Conversation with Copilot, 10/8/2024
(1) Hurricane Milton: Understanding storm surge projections for Tampa Bay area. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hurricane-milton-understanding-storm-surge-projections-for-tampa-bay-area/ar-AA1rUW2o.
(2) Hurricane Milton’s storm surge threat is growing. Here’s what Tampa Bay should watch out for.. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/why-hurricane-miltons-storm-surge-threat-is-growing/ar-AA1rRxjw.
(3) Milton’s storm surge is a threat that could be devastating far beyond the Tampa Bay region. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/miltons-storm-surge-is-a-threat-that-could-be-devastating-far-beyond-the-tampa-bay-region/ar-AA1rUyG5.
(4) Hurricane Milton: Understanding storm surge projections for Tampa Bay …. https://www.fox13news.com/news/hurricane-milton-understanding-storm-surge-projections-tampa-bay-area.
(5) Hurricane Milton’s storm surge threat is growing. Here’s what Tampa Bay …. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-milton-storm-surge-tampa-bay-forecast/.

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